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Atlantic Hurricane Season: By Mid-August, No Hurricanes Had Formed In The Atlantic Basin For The First Time In Seven Years

Atlantic Hurricane Season

Despite two recently published forecasts that predict fewer storms than in the past, the hurricane season in the Atlantic in 2022 is still forecast to be busier than normal. The first storms of the Atlantic hurricane season have been starting roughly five days earlier per decade since 1979, despite the fact that this season has been relatively quiet thus far. This trend was shown in a study published on Tuesday. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1 each year.

A further finding of the study was that, since 1900, the first designated storm to make landfall in the United States has been trending sooner, by around two days every decade. According to the study, this tendency toward earlier onset is probably due to climate change-driven warming in the western Atlantic Ocean in the spring, which has also showed a trend toward increasing during the same time.

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2022 Hurricane Season

The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA, which is a component of the National Weather Service, is making projections that hurricane activity will be above average this year. If these projections come true, it will be the seventh straight year in which hurricane activity will be above average. According to NOAA’s forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, the organization anticipates a 65% likelihood of an above-average season, a 25% chance of a season that is near normal, and a 10% risk of a season that is below normal.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is projecting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) for the 2022 hurricane season, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. These projections are based on the average number of named storms seen during previous hurricane seasons (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). These estimates are provided by NOAA with a level of confidence of 70 percent.

Following the official beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2022, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) will begin publishing a weekly series highlighting USGS hurricane science that can be used to inform decisions that can help keep people and communities safe. This series will continue until early July. Included among the topics will be:

Saharan Dust

The sand from the Sahara Desert is a contributing cause, according to Jonathan Porter of AccuWeather and Klotzbach. According to Jason Dunion, a SAL researcher with the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School and other experts, this so-called ultra-dry Saharan Air Layer, or SAL, which is an annual occurrence, has been occupying the air in the hurricane-spawning grounds and is quite an effective tropical storm repellent.

He claims that between late June and mid-August, disturbances along the southern Sahara lift enormous volumes of dust, some of which can be up to two miles thick. That might put an end to potential tropical storms. A lot more Saharan dust than typical has been observed throughout the East Coast of the United States, particularly between mid-July and early August, according to Dunion.

That might be connected to the area of high pressure over the Atlantic that heated up the East. However, I’d describe it as a mystery for the time being that has to be investigated. Klotzbach stated last week that “SAL has definitely helped keep things quiet.” Over the tropical Atlantic, we can see a good quantity of dry air. However, the lack of hurricanes so far is not entirely attributable to SAL.

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Wind Shear

When warm, humid air rises over the ocean, hurricanes begin to form and intensify. A storm’s growth may be hindered by strong upper-level shearing winds that cap the ascending air. Over the past two months, Klotzbach noted that although not “crazy powerful,” there have been a few respectable pulses of shear that was stronger than usual. Furthermore, there is evidence to support an increase in hurricane activity from conditions in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are below average or from La Nia.

NOAA Products and Services

The following goods and services have also been improved by NOAA during this storm season:

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  • I'm a 4th Year student of Architecture Undergraduate programme at Priyadarshini Institute of Architecture And Design Studies, Nagpur. During my studies, I have worked on multiple projects and these assignments have helped me to become a great team player and how to function well in fast paced and deadline driven environments. Some of interests are Sketching, listening and exploring old music, watching documentaries and being an architectural student I like to explore the conceptual angle of every element.

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