ATHENS — Will it snow this weekend? is a forecast that requires some effort to predict. Yes, in several areas of north Georgia. Most likely not in other areas.
Even if it does snow, getting it to stick in the metro will be difficult. The ground will be extremely warm and our temperatures will be in the middle range, making it difficult for snow to stick.
Here is what is currently known:
- In certain areas of north Georgia late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, rain may combine with and/or transition to wet snow.
- Snow that falls will be melted more quickly by above-freezing temperatures and the moist, warm earth.
- In the highlands of north Georgia, light accumulations are most likely.
Setup for Snow Chance: What We Are Tracking
This weekend, a region of surface low pressure is building and cutting through southern Georgia. North Georgia won’t be directly affected by this surface low; instead, it will move up the coast.
A cutoff low located higher in the atmosphere will have enough cold air to allow for the transition from rain to snow.
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How might Snow be seen by anyone?
As of Friday morning, we anticipate some sort of changeover to snow in far north Georgia late Saturday night through portions of Sunday morning. When the snow falls, it will be wet snow and most likely be above freezing.
However, some light accumulations, particularly in the mountains, are likely in far northeast Georgia.
If we can take advantage of that cold air above with the upper low, we feel that some mixing with flakes may be feasible in the metro area. Due to the warm ground and temperatures above freezing, the majority of this will melt once it reaches the surface. Only grassy, high surfaces would have anything that clings, and due to the warm, moist earth, it would probably melt soon after.
What are models wearing? Models do, however, predict how much snow will fall, but they do not predict how much will stick and pile.
Here is a model comparison that shows potential snowfall locations. Due to above-freezing temperatures (we’ll be in the mid to upper 30s while the snow falls) and a warm, moist ground (we picked up 1″+ of rain before the snow), the most of this will melt.
Timeline – Snow Chances by Month
It will start raining on Saturday night and continue through early Sunday morning, mainly between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m., and finish between 6 a.m. and noon on Sunday.
The forecast track (future radar) graphics below provide a general sense of timing. This is not exactly how the radar will turn out; as the event progresses, places where it changes from rain to snow may shift and vary.
Saturday morning: The weekend is off to a cloudy but dry start. However, rain blankets the region on Saturday morning from south to north. Pre-dawn hours will be the only dry time south of I-20. After morning, North Georgia may still have a few hours before the rain starts. Winds start to increase. It will be in the 40s outside.
Saturday afternoon: The area is still covered in a cold rain. Sometimes there may be areas of heavy rain mixed in. Mid-40s to mid-50s will be the temperature range. Winds from the northeast will gust as high as 35 mph.
Evening of Saturday – Rain will persist and perhaps get heavy at times. With wind gusts of up to 30 mph, it will be in the 40s.
Saturday night – As the upper low moves overhead, cold air may descend to the surface and, in some places, turn rain into snow. In the higher elevations, this may occur as early as Saturday night at 10 p.m. This switchover may take place in some areas of the metro after midnight. Greater chances of this turning into a burst of wet snow will occur in areas that get more intense rainfall.
Early on Sunday morning, the metro area and far north Georgia will continue to experience a rain/snow mix. The area north and along I-20 will have the biggest potential of snow mixing in.
Mid-morning on Sunday: The snow possibility arrives and departs in a flash. After six in the morning, the amounts of rain and snow will start to diminish, as will their coverage.
Sunday at noon: The cold weather that we briefly experienced is ending. It will be windy, overcast, and chilly.
Sunday afternoon: Strong gusts from the northwest bring in drier air. The clouds part as a result. The afternoon will be cool, windy, but sunnier. Temperatures hover between the 40s and 50.
Recap: Expectations
- In certain areas of north Georgia late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, rain may combine with and/or transition to wet snow.
- Snow that falls will be melted more quickly by above-freezing temperatures and the moist, warm earth.
- In the highlands of north Georgia, light accumulations are most likely.
- Not a significant winter event, this.
It is crucial to emphasise that this forecast is dynamic and ever-evolving. It is challenging. It’s better to be prepared since what you read now might not be what you see tomorrow.
